A prominent Bitcoin price-action trader maintains an overall bullish Q1 outlook, but is also taking short trades within the range.
He himself says he’s not bearish on Bitcoin at all, yet people are questioning him. In his latest video, he explains why this could be. According to him, it all depends on the timeframe and confirmation.
He sees the possibility of a bearish Elliott Wave on the daily chart. According to this, the market has completed waves 1, 2, 3, and 4 and could possibly enter another lower wave. But he also says that this scenario is less strong and there is a greater chance of an upside move.
The most important level for his bearish view is around $94.7k. If Bitcoin makes a strong break above this level, he believes that the bearish view was wrong and the market is not completing a downward wave.
Table of Contents
Trading Range | Short-Term, Long-Term Bull
The trader overall view is bullish in the long term, but he still continues to short trade in the 90k to 91k area. He says that algorithms repeatedly sell at this level, preventing the price from moving higher. He clearly sees this with his special chart tool, Shift Pitchforks.
He has now closed most of his short positions and only has a small trade open. The price again rejected resistance and bounced off support near 86.9k. Now, this level is very important for him in the short term.
He says that the more times Bitcoin tests the supply zone at once, the weaker it becomes. He puts it simply:
“We tested this level one, two, three times. The fourth time, I think it will break.”
If Bitcoin makes a strong close above 90.6k–90.7k on the 4-hour or daily chart, it will become completely bullish in the short term. Its next target will then be 94.7k.
After that level, there isn’t much resistance, and the price could easily move to the 100k–104k area.
Stock Market Highs, Lagging Behind
This analysis raises an important concern: Bitcoin appears weak compared to the stock market.
The trader notes that the stock market has had four consecutive green days, is near record highs, and is approaching its macro pitchfork target of 7.4k–7.5k.
Compared to this, Bitcoin is not doing so well. In his words, Bitcoin appears “a bit dead,” having only seen a small bounce. He warns that if the stock market turns down from here, Bitcoin could come under further pressure.
If support at 86.9k breaks, the next low is seen near 84.8k. This is the middle line of its “original” pitchfork. Accordingly, the price could move lower here simply to absorb liquidity, and this could also create a long entry opportunity.
On-chain and derivatives data is currently neutral. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 29, which indicates fear, but not extreme. Open interest is also moving sideways, neither too bullish nor too bearish.
Liquidity heat maps show that there are a lot of stop losses and liquidations above 90k and around 84k. This means that if Bitcoin moves fast, up or down, it could be due to more machines and algorithms.
Why This Setup Matters – Bullish Q1
For investors, this message isn’t about a guaranteed breakout, but rather about risk management levels. The trader’s entire plan revolves around three important price levels:
86.9k This is short-term support. If this level holds, the Q1 bullish sentiment remains valid.
90.6k–90.7k This is strong resistance. When the price closes above this level on the daily chart, the market sentiment becomes clearly bullish.
94.7k This is the level where the bearish Elliott Wave sentiment is completely exhausted.
Until one of these three lines clearly breaks, the trader expects the market to remain sideways and confusing. At this time, there’s no certainty about a strong direction.
But when a breakout occurs, the trader wants to be prepared, more than just predicting the future. In simple words:
“No one knows when the market will break out. The point is to be on the right side when it does.”
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People Also Ask – Bullish Q1
Is the trader bullish or bearish on Bitcoin?
He is bullish for the long term and for bullish Q1. However, in the short term, he is placing short trades within the current resistance zone.
Which level will make the setup clearly bullish?
If Bitcoin closes above 90.6k–90.7k on the daily chart, and then moves towards 94.7k, the setup will become clearly bullish.
Where does he want to buy if the price falls?
He is eyeing support at 86.9k. If this level breaks, he sees another good buying opportunity near 84.8k.
How does the stock market fit into this view?
He sees the stock market heading towards new highs. However, if there is a reversal, Bitcoin could also be dragged down in the short term, even if the overall outlook for BTC remains positive.
